Deloitte Projects 4.9% Economic Growth for Ghana in 2024, 5.1% in 2025

International accounting and audit firm Deloitte is projecting Ghana’s economy to end the year with a 4.9% growth rate, with further expansion of 5.1% projected in 2025. This optimistic outlook is attributed to the government’s debt sustainability initiatives, a more stable local currency, and a deceleration in inflation.

The projection comes at a time of sustained growth in the first three quarters of the year. Ghana recorded an impressive average real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.3% in the first three quarters of 2024, a significant leap from the 2.6% recorded during the same period in 2023. This growth was fueled by quarterly expansions of 4.8% in Q1, 7.0% in Q2, and an outstanding 7.2% in Q3—the highest quarterly GDP growth in the last five years.

The non-oil sector has been equally robust, posting an average growth rate of 6.2% for the first three quarters of 2024, compared to 2.6% in the same period last year. Quarterly growth figures for the non-oil economy were 4.3% in Q1, 6.6% in Q2, and 7.7% in Q3.

The Ministry of Finance, in its commentary on the first three quarters’ performance, stated that given this stellar performance, Ghana is on track to exceed the recently revised GDP growth projection of 4% for 2024 under the 3rd Review of the IMF-supported Programme. Ghana’s post-debt restructuring growth defies global trends, where such economies typically grow at a modest 1-2%.

According to Deloitte’s report titled “West Africa in Focus – A Sneak Preview of 2025: What Lies Ahead,” the deceleration in inflation is expected to trigger further interest rate cuts that began in 2024, leading to lower borrowing costs. This should drive increased private consumption and investment spending, boosting economic growth.

2024 Elections Outcome

The report referenced the December 2024 elections, describing them as relatively peaceful, with the outcome resulting in a change in government and party. Former President John Dramani Mahama won the election on his third attempt under the National Democratic Congress (NDC) party, ending the ruling New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) 8-year regime. Mahama was the President of Ghana between 2012 and 2017.

Deloitte noted that President-elect Mahama will inherit an economy challenged by high inflation, currency weakness, and debt concerns. His economic policies will likely focus on fiscal discipline and strategic investments in infrastructure, with the possibility of renegotiating the terms of the ongoing $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout.

 Outlook

Deloitte reiterated that Ghana is a major exporter of cocoa and gold. The country’s gold production is projected to rise marginally by 3% to 136 tonnes in 2025 from an estimated 132 tonnes in 2024; it produced 128 tonnes in 2023. The higher gold output is expected to come from a $525 million production expansion plan at Asante Gold’s Bibiani and Chirano mines, and the start of production at the Ahafo North gold mine. Higher gold production, coupled with a stronger price of gold in the international market, will spur increased gold receipts for the country.

Gold prices are projected to rise further in 2025 due to the adoption of a more accommodative monetary policy by developed economies like the United States and the United Kingdom. Safe haven assets like gold are more attractive in a declining interest rate environment.

Ghana’s cocoa exports, the country’s second-largest export, will continue to face challenges stemming from the spread of the swollen shoot virus, adverse weather conditions, smuggling, and global commodity price volatility. Ghana is projected to produce 527,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, higher than the 2024/2025 season estimate of 500,000 tonnes.

There are downside risks to the projected economic growth for Ghana, including commodity price volatility, adverse weather conditions, local exchange rate shocks, delays in private debt restructuring, poor infrastructure, and sporadic social unrest due to public discontent with poor living standards.

Progress

Despite these challenges, Deloitte believes that Ghana is slowly retracing its steps back to a path of macroeconomic stability, as the government’s fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring activities are bearing fruit.