Kenya overtakes Nigeria as Africa’s fastest-growing private-sector economy

By InstinctBusiness Dec 12, 20250

Kenya has seized the crown as Africa’s fastest-expanding private-sector economy, ending Nigeria’s long dominance, according to the latest S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November.

Kenya’s PMI surged to 55.0, its strongest reading in five years and the highest on the continent, comfortably eclipsing Nigeria’s 53.6 and Uganda’s 53.8. A score above 50 indicates improving business conditions; Kenya’s sharp leap from 52.5 in October marked one of the steepest monthly gains recorded anywhere in Africa this year.

The shift represents the clearest evidence yet of changing regional momentum heading into 2026, with economists warning that Nigeria’s recovery, while still positive, appears increasingly fragile compared with its East African rivals.

In Kenya, businesses reported a surge in new orders, successful product launches, increased consumer purchasing power, easing inflation, and significantly shorter supplier delivery times. Companies responded by ramping up output, restocking inventories, and expanding purchasing activity at the fastest pace in years.

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By contrast, Nigerian firms continued to grapple with persistent cost pressures, foreign exchange volatility, and increased logistics expenses. Although output and new orders rose modestly, particularly in services, food processing, and consumer goods, the pace of improvement lagged well behind Kenya. Employment growth slowed as companies adopted a cautious stance on long-term hiring amid persistent uncertainty over input costs, especially for imported materials, fuel, and packaging.

The November readings have intensified scrutiny on Nigeria’s economic management at a time when competition for investment, market share, and supply-chain relevance across Africa is heating up. Once the undisputed bellwether for non-oil private-sector performance on the continent, Nigeria now finds itself playing catch-up to a resurgent Kenya and a steadily advancing Uganda, where consistent demand in services and agriculture underpinned solid expansion.